{"by_horizon":{"1":{"scorer":"M10","threshold":0.977914,"val_accuracy":0.9983,"val_market_implied":0.9951},"30":{"scorer":"M11","threshold":0.939582,"val_accuracy":0.9837,"val_market_implied":0.9759},"7":{"scorer":"M1","threshold":0.955157,"val_accuracy":0.9925,"val_market_implied":0.9841}},"committed_at":"2026-11-05T03:07:07+00:00","coverage_target":0.7,"decision":"once per market, first snapshot after commit; picked iff score >= threshold of its horizon bucket","prereg":"docs/pm-backtest-prereg.md 修正案 #9 §15.3","schema":"sitest.pm-picks-rules/v1","side":"model probability >= 0.5 -> YES else NO","verdict":">= 200 settled picks; report accuracy (Wilson 95%) and excess over market-implied (event bootstrap 95%)"}